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Delivery threshold optimiser
"Free shipping over £N" vs a flat discount, worked out in £ on your own order book — free shipping usually costs less than it looks.
Modelled illustration from your own inputs — not a forecast, and not a live claim.
Your numbers
What shipping actually costs you — unaffected by who you charge for it.
The flat discount you're weighing free shipping against — 10% is the usual starting comparison.
Candidate thresholds
Threshold 1
Your own estimate of today's basket sizes — a direct input, not a modelled curve.
Your assumption about buyers padding their basket to reach free shipping — a user input, not a measurement.
Modelled at this threshold
- Orders qualifying now
- 840/mo675 already there + 165 topping up
- Free-shipping cost
- £4,158/mo
- Comparison discount cost
- £3,780/mo
Free shipping over £50 is modelled at £4,158/month — £378/month MORE than 10% off the same orders (£3,780/month).
Break-even: £9,900/mo of extra basket revenue would fully fund this policy at your margin. Your top-up assumption models £9,075/mo short of that.
Threshold 2
Your own estimate of today's basket sizes — a direct input, not a modelled curve.
Your assumption about buyers padding their basket to reach free shipping — a user input, not a measurement.
Modelled at this threshold
- Orders qualifying now
- 564/mo330 already there + 234 topping up
- Free-shipping cost
- £2,792/mo
- Comparison discount cost
- £2,538/mo
Free shipping over £75 is modelled at £2,792/month — £254/month MORE than 10% off the same orders (£2,538/month).
Break-even: £6,647/mo of extra basket revenue would fully fund this policy at your margin. Your top-up assumption models £373/mo more than that — modelled as self-funding.
Threshold 3
Your own estimate of today's basket sizes — a direct input, not a modelled curve.
Your assumption about buyers padding their basket to reach free shipping — a user input, not a measurement.
Modelled at this threshold
- Orders qualifying now
- 420/mo150 already there + 270 topping up
- Free-shipping cost
- £2,079/mo
- Comparison discount cost
- £1,890/mo
Free shipping over £100 is modelled at £2,079/month — £189/month MORE than 10% off the same orders (£1,890/month).
Break-even: £4,950/mo of extra basket revenue would fully fund this policy at your margin. Your top-up assumption models £9,900/mo more than that — modelled as self-funding.
How to read this
Every £ figure is modelled from the numbers you entered above — nothing is fetched, measured, or invented. Change any input and every threshold recalculates instantly.
“Orders already at or above this threshold” and “sub-threshold orders that top up” are your own estimates of buyer behaviour, not measurements — the model is only as good as those two numbers.
Delivery cost paid does not change the free-shipping cost figure: the parcel ships either way, so the only thing the policy changes is whether the buyer or the business pays the delivery charge.
Want the whole picture?
This calculation is one piece of it. The free Full Market Report is built to go further — real market sizing and a competitor read, at no charge.
Get the full report on your businessMeasured, not promised. Every figure carries its provenance; estimates are labelled as estimates.